Scientists are racing to keep up with evolution of the coronavirus

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Sun, 2021-03-07 20:54 — mike kraft

Scientists underestimated the coronavirus — and are racing to keep up with evolution For most of 2020, scientists weren't very concerned that the coronavirus would evolve. But in a few short months, variants of the virus have become a global preoccupation -- and a potential threat to vaccines. Carolyn Y. Johnson Washington Post

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For much of 2020, most people — including most experts — weren’t particularly worried about the virus’s ability to evolve. SARS-CoV-2 was changing, but so far that hadn’t amounted to anything especially concerning. Then, in late fall, it jumped. Distinctive new versions of the virus sparked alarming surges in Brazil, South Africa and the United Kingdom.

In a few short months, variants have become a global preoccupation. Nearly every time public health experts talk about the trajectory of the health crisis, they dwell on the variants, the loose cannon that could wreck hard-won progress.

These variants carry not one but a slew of mutations. They appear to have worrisome new abilities, better at spreading or slipping by aspects of immunity.

Their sudden emergence caught scientists off guard and set the stage for the next chapter of the pandemic. The mass vaccination campaign that could have felt like a wave of relief is instead an ominous, urgent race against a changing virus. The path to herd immunity, the powerful milestone when the virus won’t be able to spark new outbreaks, is looking longer and more complex. Vaccines may not totally vanquish but simply chase a continually changing virus.

As scientists work to get a handle on the variants, the situation gives the public a rare front-row seat and real-time view of the unpredictability of viral evolution. The virus is changing, and scientists are preparing for a wide range of possible futures.

“We do have to come to terms with the fact that I’m pretty confident that SARS-CoV-2 is going to be more like influenza, which is with us all the time because the virus is changing, and we have to worry about keeping our vaccines updated,” Bloom said. “On the other hand, I think that a year from now, it’s going to be much less of a problem.”

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