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Hospitals prepare for ‘nightmare’ scenario of flu and coronavirus striking at same time
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.... Infectious-disease experts have warned of a new and potentially calamitous wave of coronavirus cases this fall, possibly cresting in winter when the flu and other respiratory viruses take hold. That creates particular worries for small, critical-access hospitals such as Ward Memorial (in Monahans, Tex.) that isolated communities rely on for a wide range of health-care needs. But even well-resourced institutions in cities are concerned that a “twindemic” of flu and covid-19 could deplete stockpiles of masks and gowns, force them to compete for testing resources such as chemical reagents and strain weary front-line staffers.
“I worry the most about the ability of the workforce to step into the ring again,” said Brendan Carr, chair of emergency medicine at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City. He said that hospital had been working hard to provide psychological support for battle-hardened health-care workers who have had few opportunities to recharge.
“Adrenaline can only take you so far,” Carr said.
Even without covid-19, the flu is an unpredictable challenge each winter. Every year over the past decade, it has caused between 140,000 and 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The numbers differ dramatically, depending on many factors, including the severity of the strain, the efficacy of the vaccine and how willing people are to adjust their behaviors, for instance not going to work when they feel sick.
This year, those uncertainties are greater still, according to Donald Yealy, senior medical director at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. He described a range of possibilities: Dueling respiratory viruses that are hard to tell apart could lead to severe complications. Or, the influenza season could be much diminished, with coronavirus practices such as social distancing and mask-wearing also slowing the flu’s spread.
“We don’t know what the fall will bring,” Yealy said. “Our challenge as health-care providers is to have plans.” ...
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